Commodity CFDs at 88.5% of Revenue, Up From 29.1% a Year Earlier
The composition of gross revenue from financial instrument operations shifted, with the largest asset class by revenue share changing from index CFDs to commodity CFDs over the trailing twelve months. Commodity CFDs accounted for 88.5% of the gross result in Q1 2026, compared to 61.2% in Q4 2025 and 29.1% in Q1 2025. Index CFDs, which contributed 52.3% of gross revenue in Q1 2025 and 18.3% in Q4 2025, fell to 2.1% in Q1 2026. Currency CFDs declined to 5.1%, from 13.5% in Q1 2025.
In absolute PLN terms, gross result from commodity CFDs rose to PLN 965.7 million in Q1 2026 from PLN 166.8 million in Q1 2025, a 478.9% year-over-year increase. Gross result from index CFDs fell to PLN 22.9 million from PLN 299.7 million over the same period, a 92.4% year-over-year decline. The Q1 2026 commodity reading of 88.5% sits 36 percentage points above the prior peak in single-asset-class concentration in XTB's disclosed history (index CFDs at 52.3% of Q1 2025 gross revenue).
Table 1. Top 10 CFD instruments in Q1 2026: trading volume share vs. gross-result share
|
Rank |
By Trading Volume |
Volume Share |
By Gross Result |
Result Share |
|
1 |
Gold (GOLD) |
44.18% |
Gold CFD |
43.95% |
|
2 |
US100 (Nasdaq 100) |
26.42% |
Silver CFD |
28.79% |
|
3 |
DE40 (DAX) |
6.05% |
Cocoa CFD |
9.29% |
|
4 |
Silver (SILVER) |
4.34% |
OilWTI CFD |
4.41% |
|
5 |
US500 (S&P 500) |
3.81% |
Platinum CFD |
1.99% |
|
6 |
EUR/USD |
2.36% |
Bitcoin CFD |
1.78% |
|
7 |
Oil (OIL) |
2.08% |
Oils CFD |
1.61% |
|
8 |
US30 (Dow Jones) |
1.59% |
DE40 CFD |
1.18% |
|
9 |
Natural gas (NATGAS) |
1.56% |
Ethereum CFD |
0.93% |
|
10 |
Oil WTI (OILWTI) |
1.36% |
Palladium CFD |
0.65% |
|
Top 10 cumulative |
93.75% |
Top 10 cumulative |
94.58% |
Source: XTB S.A. Current Report 11/2026 (April 28, 2026), pages 16-17. Volume share denotes percentage of CFD trading volume in Q1 2026. Result share denotes percentage of gross result from financial instrument operations in Q1 2026. The two rankings include partially overlapping but distinct instrument sets
Concentration extends to the instrument level. Among CFDs ranked by trading volume in Q1 2026, gold accounted for 44.18% and US100 (a CFD on the Nasdaq 100 index) accounted for 26.42%, together representing 70.6% of CFD trading volume. The next-largest instrument, DE40, contributed 6.05%. By gross result from financial instrument operations, gold CFD generated 43.95%, followed by silver CFD at 28.79% and cocoa CFD at 9.29%, together totaling 82.0% of the gross result.
The previous quarterly comparison point is XTB's Q1 2025 disclosure, in which index CFDs led the revenue mix at 52.3% and commodity CFDs accounted for 29.1% of gross revenue. The full-year 2025 result, disclosed in XTB's consolidated annual report in March 2026, showed commodity CFDs at 43.7% of gross revenue and index CFDs at 36.0%, indicating that the Q1 2026 mix represents a continuation and intensification of the shift observed across FY 2025.
To be sure: asset-class concentration reflects the underlying market environment and client positioning rather than a structural change in XTB's product offering. The Q1 2026 commodity reading is exposed to mean reversion if commodity volatility normalizes in subsequent quarters. FM Intelligence has not independently verified the gross-result allocations across instrument classes.
Profitability per Lot at PLN 439, More Than Double the Q4 2025 Reading
Profitability per CFD lot rose to PLN 439 in Q1 2026, from PLN 208 in Q4 2025 and PLN 277 in Q1 2025, a 111.1% sequential increase and a 58.5% year-over-year increase. Profitability per USD 1 million of nominal CFD trading volume rose to USD 216, from USD 93 in Q4 2025 and USD 144 in Q1 2025.
The Q1 2026 profitability-per-lot reading sits 60% above the highest annual reading in XTB's disclosed history. The annual range from FY 2020 to FY 2025 spanned PLN 144 (FY 2021) to PLN 275 (FY 2024). Quarterly readings since Q2 2024 have ranged from PLN 152 (Q3 2025) to PLN 439 (Q1 2026), a range of approximately 2.9x within an eight-quarter window.
Margin expansion, rather than incremental volume, was the proximate driver of revenue growth versus Q4 2025. CFD trading volume in lots fell 8.6% sequentially to 2,323,204 (Q4 2025: 2,542,526), and nominal CFD trading value fell 16.9% sequentially to USD 1,333.4 billion (Q4 2025: USD 1,605.0 billion). On a year-over-year basis, lots rose 21.8% and nominal value rose 42.2%. XTB's prepared commentary describes "high trading activity" with reference to the year-over-year increase in CFD lots; the sequential declines in lots and nominal value are observable in the disclosed data tables but do not appear in the narrative commentary.
XTB's hybrid business model combines market-maker activity, in which the company is direct counterparty to client transactions for most CFD instruments, with agency execution used primarily for cryptocurrency-based CFDs and equity products. For commodity CFDs, market-maker margin captures the differential between client positioning and price movement. XTB Chief Financial Officer Paweł Szejko, in commentary published by Finance Magnates following the Q3 2025 disclosure, stated that "with such a client base and high volatility, nothing would prevent XTB from generating 500 million zlotys in net profit," while noting that low-volatility quarters such as Q3 2025, in which clients were profitable, compress the company's market-making result.
370,041 New Clients in Q1 2026, Highest Quarterly Figure in Disclosed History
XTB acquired 370,041 new clients in Q1 2026, compared to 194,304 in Q1 2025 (+90.4% YoY) and 280,881 in Q4 2025 (+31.7% QoQ). Total clients reached 2,513,989 at March 31, 2026, a 62.8% year-over-year increase from 1,543,785 at March 31, 2025. Active clients reached 1,267,467, a 72.4% year-over-year increase.
Average cost of client acquisition stood at PLN 0.6 thousand in Q1 2026, level with Q4 2025 and below the Q1 2025 reading of PLN 0.7 thousand. Marketing spend rose to PLN 235.4 million, from PLN 141.0 million in Q1 2025 (+66.9% YoY) and PLN 179.0 million in Q4 2025 (+31.5% QoQ). XTB disclosed that 100,900 new clients were added in the first 27 days of April 2026, a run-rate consistent with management's stated target of 250,000 to 290,000 new clients per quarter for FY 2026. The full-year 2025 acquisition total of 864,286 was a 73.4% increase over FY 2024 (498,438). For FY 2026, Noble Securities had previously projected onboarding of 1.3 million new clients across the year.
The product mix at first transaction continues to skew toward non-CFD products for new EU clients. CFDs accounted for 20.7% of EU first transactions in Q1 2026, compared to 21.1% in Q1 2025, 21.4% in FY 2024 and 29.3% in FY 2023. Shares accounted for 38.3% of first transactions, ETFs for 26.3%, and Investment Plans for 14.7%. Despite the lower share at first transaction, CFDs remain the largest revenue source: gross revenue from total CFD operations in Q1 2026 was PLN 1,065.6 million, compared to PLN 25.1 million from shares and ETFs.
To be sure: average cost of client acquisition is calculated as quarterly marketing spend divided by quarterly new clients. The metric does not capture lifetime value, retention, or revenue per active client. Operating income per active client was approximately PLN 0.9 thousand in Q1 2026, compared to PLN 0.6 thousand in Q4 2025 and PLN 0.8 thousand in Q1 2025.
Table 2. XTB client assets at nominal value by asset class, end of period (PLN million)
|
Asset Class |
31.03.2026 |
31.12.2025 |
31.12.2024 |
Q1'26 vs FY'24 |
|
Shares |
17,615 |
15,139 |
7,908 |
+122.8% |
|
ETFs |
15,246 |
12,145 |
5,774 |
+164.0% |
|
CFD |
10,798 |
12,654 |
10,027 |
+7.7% |
|
Cash |
5,934 |
5,864 |
3,751 |
+58.2% |
|
Total |
49,593 |
45,802 |
27,460 |
+80.6% |
Source: XTB S.A. Current Report 11/2026 (April 28, 2026), page 16. Asset balances measured at nominal value at end of period. Q1'26 vs FY'24 column compares end-March 2026 vs end-December 2024 (a 15-month span). Shares and ETFs together rose from 50.0% to 66.3% of total client assets between FY 2024 year-end and Q1 2026.
Operating Expenses Rise 47% YoY, Including PLN 20M KNF Provision
Operating expenses reached PLN 463.3 million in Q1 2026, up 46.7% year-over-year from PLN 315.8 million in Q1 2025 and 21.2% sequentially from PLN 382.3 million in Q4 2025. The largest expense lines were marketing at PLN 235.4 million (+66.9% YoY), salaries and employee benefits at PLN 122.1 million (+28.4% YoY), and other expenses at PLN 31.7 million (+650% YoY).
The other-expenses line includes a PLN 20.0 million provision related to a non-final decision by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) to impose a fine, which XTB classified as a one-off item. According to the KNF announcement reported by Finance Magnates, the fine was issued on March 30, 2026 and concerns XTB's client onboarding processes and target-group determination for CFDs between January 2022 and September 2023. The KNF cited insufficient assessment of client experience with complex instruments and the treatment of experience with simple instruments as adequate qualification for CFD trading. The PLN 20 million amount is among the largest the KNF has imposed on a domestic brokerage in recent years.
XTB has stated that the decision is not final and that it is analyzing the justification before deciding on possible legal steps. The company also disclosed that the questionnaire form and onboarding mechanism cited by the KNF were revised before the decision was disclosed. XTB shares reached a new all-time high of PLN 109.28 in the trading session following the KNF announcement, according to Finance Magnates market data. XTB's prior multi-million-zloty KNF case concerned asymmetric slippage practices between January 2014 and May 2015 and resulted in a PLN 9.9 million fine in 2018, upheld on final appeal in 2023.
For full-year 2026, the XTB Management Board guided total operating expenses approximately 30% above FY 2025 levels (FY 2025 base: PLN 1,313.7 million; implied FY 2026: approximately PLN 1,708 million). Marketing expenses were guided approximately 50% above FY 2025 levels (FY 2025 base: PLN 584.9 million; implied FY 2026: approximately PLN 877 million). For the medium term (2027-2029), the Management Board guided marketing growth of 30-40% per year and new client growth of approximately 30% per year, with average cost of client acquisition stable at 2023-2026 levels.
Q3 2025 at PLN 53M Marks the Volatility Range Within the Same Twelve Months
XTB's quarterly net profit since Q1 2024 has ranged from PLN 53.2 million (Q3 2025) to PLN 535.0 million (Q1 2026), a 10.1x spread within an eight-quarter window. Q1 2024 was PLN 302.7 million; Q1 2025 was PLN 193.9 million. The trailing eight-quarter mean from Q2 2024 through Q1 2026 was approximately PLN 217 million.
The Q3 2025 reading of PLN 53.2 million, disclosed by XTB on October 28, 2025, sat 73.5% below the trailing four-quarter mean of PLN 201.0 million through Q2 2025. XTB attributed the Q3 2025 result to subdued volatility and predictable market trends, which the company stated reduced market-maker income relative to client outcomes. The Q3 2025 figure is included in the historical bar chart on page 5 of the Q1 2026 preliminary disclosure but is not referenced in the prepared Q1 2026 commentary or in management's discussion of revenue volatility.
Sustaining the Q1 2026 margin-per-lot reading of PLN 439 requires continuation of the current commodity-volatility regime. FM Intelligence calculations indicate that reversion to the FY 2025 average profitability per lot of PLN 215, applied to the Q1 2026 lot volume of 2,323,204, would yield gross CFD market-making revenue of approximately PLN 499 million, compared to PLN 1,019 million in Q1 2026 (excluding shares, ETFs, and bond CFDs). At the operating expense run-rate implied by management's FY 2026 guidance (approximately PLN 425 million per quarter on a straight-line basis), such a reversion would compress operating profit materially.
XTB has consistently disclosed in its preliminary results that operating revenues are driven by market volatility and client trading activity, and that periods of low activity result in lower revenues. The Q3 2025 outcome and the Q1 2026 outcome both fall within the operational range described by management; the distance between them reflects the amplitude of that range.
To be sure: FM Intelligence does not project Q2 2026 or subsequent quarter results. The hypothetical reversion calculation above is illustrative of operational sensitivity, not a forecast. Quarterly results will be driven by realized market volatility, client positioning, instrument-level outcomes, and the trajectory of new client acquisition.
Outlook: Three Product Launches and a UAE License in 2026
Beyond financial guidance, XTB disclosed several operational developments for FY 2026. The Group obtained Category 1 and Category 2 brokerage licenses from the United Arab Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) at the end of Q1 2026. Spot cryptocurrency trading is planned for clients in Cyprus in H1 2026 under MiCA, with subsequent expansion to LATAM and other European markets contingent on regulatory approvals. Options trading was launched in Cyprus, Germany, and Spain in Q1 2026, covering call and put options on the 100 most actively traded US-listed equities.
On capital and dividend: the XTB Management Board recommended a dividend of PLN 4.07 per share (PLN 478.5 million total) from FY 2025 standalone net profit of PLN 638.9 million, representing a payout ratio of 74.9%. The total capital ratio (IFR) was 235.2% at the end of FY 2025. Q1 2026 standalone net profit was PLN 526.8 million. Own cash plus bonds rose to PLN 2,806.3 million at March 31, 2026, from PLN 1,994.0 million at December 31, 2025, an increase of PLN 812.3 million broadly consistent with Q1 2026 net profit and net deposits inflows of PLN 5,880.1 million, less working capital movements.
The full Q1 2026 consolidated report is scheduled for publication on May 15, 2026.
This analysis is based on XTB S.A.'s preliminary Q1 2026 consolidated financial and operating data, disclosed via Current Report No. 11/2026 dated April 28, 2026. Comparative period data is drawn from XTB's previous preliminary and consolidated reports. Year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter calculations were performed by FM Intelligence using the disclosed figures. Cryptocurrency CFD lot definitions were aligned with currency CFD definitions during 2025; comparative period values are restated by XTB. FM Intelligence has not independently verified the underlying transaction data, gross-result allocations across instrument classes, or geographic breakdowns of trading volumes. Hypothetical sensitivity calculations are illustrative of operational range and are not forecasts. The full Q1 2026 consolidated report scheduled for May 15, 2026 may contain revisions to the preliminary data analyzed here.