XTB at PLN 2.15 Billion: Revenue Rose 9x in Six Years While Profitability per Client Fell 76%

From PLN 239 Million to PLN 2.15 Billion: Revenue at a 44% CAGR Over Six Years

XTB's consolidated operating income expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 44.2% between 2019 and 2025, according to FM Intelligence calculations based on XTB's audited financial statements. Revenue rose from PLN 239.3 million in 2019 to PLN 2,146.1 million in 2025, a nine-fold increase. The trajectory, however, was not linear. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 drove operating income to PLN 797.8 million, a 233% year-on-year increase, as heightened market volatility and lockdown-driven retail trading activity expanded both the client base and transaction volumes. Revenue then contracted 22% in 2021 to PLN 625.6 million before rebounding to PLN 1,444.2 million in 2022, driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and commodity price dislocations.

Since 2022, the growth trajectory stabilized. Operating income increased 12.1% in 2023 (restated to PLN 1,618.4 million), 15.8% in 2024 (PLN 1,873.4 million), and 14.6% in 2025 (PLN 2,146.1 million). The three-year revenue CAGR from 2022 to 2025 was 14.1%, a pace that reflected steady client base expansion rather than the volatility-driven spikes of earlier years.

A methodological note is relevant here. Beginning with the 2024 annual report, XTB reclassified net interest income on client cash as a component of operating income. This restated 2023 total operating income from PLN 1,588.3 million (as originally reported) to PLN 1,618.4 million. The PLN 30.1 million difference represents net interest earned on client deposits. By 2025, this line item had grown to PLN 78.0 million, comprising 3.6% of total operating income. All figures in this analysis use the restated methodology for consistency across periods.

The 76% Decline: Revenue per Active Client Fell from PLN 7,400 to PLN 1,800

While headline revenue grew nine-fold, the revenue generated per active client moved in the opposite direction. Average operating income per active client decreased from PLN 7,400 in 2020 to PLN 1,800 in 2025, according to XTB's own KPI disclosures in the 2025 annual report. The decline was consistent across the period: PLN 3,200 in 2021, PLN 5,400 in 2022, PLN 3,900 in 2023, PLN 2,700 in 2024, and PLN 1,800 in 2025.

Two factors drove this compression. First, the number of active clients grew faster than revenue: active clients expanded 24x from 49,600 in 2019 to 1,189,400 in 2025, while revenue grew 9x over the same period. Second, the composition of XTB's client base shifted. The company reported that nearly 80% of new EU clients in 2024 began investing by purchasing stocks, ETFs, or opening an investment plan rather than trading CFDs. These clients generate lower per-capita revenue than active CFD traders.

This metric is rarely emphasized in sell-side research coverage of XTB and represents the central tension in the company's transformation. If revenue per active client stabilizes at PLN 1,800-2,500, XTB requires approximately 850,000-1,200,000 active clients to generate PLN 2.1 billion in annual revenue. The company crossed the 1.19 million active-client threshold in 2025.

PLN 585 Million on Marketing: Operating Expenses Rose 48% While Revenue Grew 15%

Total operating expenses increased 48.2% year-on-year to PLN 1,313.7 million in 2025, compared to a 14.6% increase in operating income. The cost-to-income ratio rose to 61.2% from 47.3% a year earlier, marking the highest expense ratio since 2019 (72.6%). This ratio had ranged between 38.3% and 47.3% during the 2022-2024 period.

Marketing was the largest cost category at PLN 584.9 million, up 69.7% from PLN 344.8 million in 2024. Marketing expenditure as a percentage of operating income rose to 27.2% in 2025 from 18.4% in 2024 and 16.3% in 2023. XTB described this as its largest-ever global branding campaign, spanning three continents.

Salaries and employee benefits, the second-largest cost category, increased 32.6% to PLN 413.0 million, reflecting headcount growth across the group. Other external services (including IT systems and database licenses) rose 67.7% to PLN 132.8 million. Commission expenses, primarily fees paid to payment service providers for client deposits, increased 10.4% to PLN 107.4 million.

Cost Category	2023 (PLN mm)	2024 (PLN mm)	2025 (PLN mm)	2025 vs 2024
Marketing	263.9	344.8	584.9	+69.7%
Salaries & benefits	259.1	311.6	413.0	+32.6%
Commission expenses	61.8	97.3	107.4	+10.4%
Other external services	64.1	79.2	132.8	+67.7%
Other (D&A, taxes, rent, etc.)	45.2	54.0	75.5	+39.8%
Total operating expenses	694.2	886.7	1,313.7	+48.2%

Source: XTB S.A. consolidated annual reports, 2023-2025.

Despite the increase in absolute marketing spend, XTB's average client acquisition cost remained flat at PLN 700 per new client in both 2024 and 2025, according to the company's KPI disclosures. This figure decreased from PLN 1,100 in 2022 and PLN 800 in 2023, indicating improved marketing efficiency per client acquired even as total spend rose. The question is whether per-client revenue of PLN 1,800 can sustain a PLN 700 acquisition cost over a client's lifetime.

Commodity CFDs at PLN 924 Million, Index CFDs at PLN 761 Million: Revenue Mix by Instrument Class

CFD-based instruments continued to dominate XTB's revenue, generating PLN 2,035.0 million in gross revenue in 2025 (before bonuses and broker commissions), up 10.7% from PLN 1,837.2 million in 2024. Commodity CFDs were the largest contributor at PLN 923.7 million (45.4% of gross CFD revenue), followed by index CFDs at PLN 760.7 million (37.4%). Currency CFDs generated PLN 290.4 million (14.3%), and stock/ETF CFDs contributed PLN 60.0 million (2.9%).

The dominance of commodity CFDs reflected activity in gold, natural gas, and cocoa, according to XTB's disclosures. Index CFDs, driven primarily by instruments tracking the US 100, German DAX, and US 500, increased their share from 33.9% in 2024 to 37.4% in 2025.

The CFD mix shifted considerably from 2019, when index CFDs accounted for 75.2% of total CFD revenue and commodities contributed just 5.2%. By 2020, the commodity share had risen to 33.2% as oil price volatility attracted traders. By 2025, the split between commodities and indices had reached near-parity, with commodities holding a narrowing lead. Currency CFDs, once 18.3% of the mix in 2019, contracted to 14.3% by 2025.

The Swap Income Shift: From 15% to 42% of Gross Revenue Between 2019 and 2024

An under-examined dimension of XTB's revenue structure is the composition by income source: spread, swap points/fees, and market-making. Swap, fees, and commission income rose from 15% of gross revenue in 2019 to 41-42% in 2023-2024, according to XTB's disclosures across the relevant annual reports. In 2025, the company separated these categories further, reporting swap at 25%, market-making at 25%, spread at 48%, and fees/commissions at 2%.

The increase in swap-related income coincided with the global interest rate tightening cycle. Swap points on CFD positions reflect interest rate differentials, and as central banks raised rates from 2022 onward, the income XTB earned from holding client positions overnight expanded. This created a structural revenue tailwind that was not driven by client acquisition or trading volume but by macroeconomic conditions.

This dynamic carries implications for XTB's revenue sustainability. If central banks reduce interest rates, swap income as a percentage of revenue would decrease. The 2025 data already suggests a partial normalization: swap's share fell from 42% (2024) to 25% (2025), while market-making rebounded from 5% to 25%. The 2021 data provides a cautionary precedent: market-making generated a negative 23% contribution that year, meaning XTB's market-making operations produced a net loss, likely connected to the meme-stock volatility and abrupt directional moves that disadvantaged market-makers.

Year	Spread	Swap/Fees/Commissions	Market Making
2019	62%	15%	23%
2020	54%	16%	30%
2021	83%	40%	-23%
2022	54%	26%	20%
2023	46%	41%	13%
2024	53%	42%	5%
2025	48%	27%*	25%

Source: XTB S.A. consolidated annual reports, 2019-2025. *2025 split: swap 25% + fees/commissions 2%.

Separately, XTB began reporting net interest income on client cash as a distinct operating income line from 2024. This item grew from PLN 58.9 million in 2024 to PLN 78.0 million in 2025, reflecting a 56.3% increase in client cash balances partially offset by lower prevailing interest rates. This represents an additional revenue stream, distinct from swap income on CFD positions, that benefits from higher interest rates and a growing deposit base.

Poland at 54.4% of Revenue: Geographic Concentration Increased for the Fourth Consecutive Year

Central and Eastern Europe generated PLN 1,447.9 million in operating income in 2025, representing 67.5% of consolidated revenue. Poland alone contributed PLN 1,168.4 million, or 54.4% of total operating income, up from 51.1% in 2024, 46.7% in 2023, and 37.0% in 2020. XTB stated that it captured approximately 33% of all new securities accounts registered with Poland's Central Securities Depository (KDPW) in 2025.

Western Europe, the second-largest region, generated PLN 387.4 million (18.0% of total), up 8.9% year-on-year but declining as a share from 19.0% in 2024. The Middle East contributed PLN 182.5 million (8.5%), down 10.1% from PLN 203.1 million in 2024. Latin America generated PLN 128.3 million (6.0%), up 8.8% from PLN 117.9 million.

The increasing concentration in Poland represents both a domestic success and a diversification risk. Poland's share of XTB's revenue increased by 17.4 percentage points between 2020 and 2025. Any regulatory changes affecting the Polish retail brokerage market, alterations to IKE (pension account) tax incentives, or saturation in client acquisition would disproportionately affect the group's consolidated results. XTB's disclosures indicate plans to expand in Western Europe (through ISA accounts in the UK and PEA accounts in France) and in Asia (Indonesia), which may eventually reduce this concentration.

Institutional Revenue Fell 61% to PLN 42.5 Million: The X Open Hub Segment Fades

XTB's institutional operations (branded as X Open Hub), which provide liquidity and trade infrastructure to third-party brokers, generated operating income of PLN 42.5 million in 2025. This represents a 48.3% decline from PLN 82.3 million in 2024 and a 60.8% decline from PLN 108.4 million in 2023. The institutional segment's share of total operating income fell to 2.0% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024 and 6.7% in 2023.

By comparison, the institutional segment generated PLN 104.9 million in 2020, when it accounted for 13.2% of total operating income. XTB's business is now 98% retail, a concentration that contrasts with peers such as CMC Markets and IG Group, which maintain larger institutional divisions.

PLN 78 Million from Stocks and ETFs: Revenue 16x Higher Than 2020

Gross revenue from stocks and ETP (exchange-traded product) transactions reached PLN 78.3 million in 2025, up 155.5% from PLN 30.7 million in 2024. This represented a 16-fold increase from PLN 5.0 million in 2020. Stock and ETP trading volume in nominal value reached USD 21.8 billion in 2025, up 127.8% from USD 9.6 billion in 2024, according to XTB's operational KPI disclosures.

Despite the rapid growth, stocks and ETFs still accounted for only 3.7% of gross revenue from financial instrument operations in 2025. CFDs remained the dominant revenue source at 96.3%. XTB's stated strategic goal is to reduce CFD dependence by building a diversified investment platform offering stocks, ETFs, investment plans, pension accounts (IKE in Poland, ISA in the UK, PEA in France), and eventually spot cryptocurrency trading.

8.87 Million Lots at PLN 215 per Lot: Volume Rose 41% While Unit Profitability Fell 22%

CFD trading volume reached 8,866,400 lots in 2025, up 41.3% from 6,274,200 lots in 2024, according to the 2025 annual report. Profitability per lot, however, declined 21.8% to PLN 215 from PLN 275 in 2024. This metric, which represents the Group's operating income from financial instruments divided by trading volume in lots, is the single most volatile input in XTB's earnings model.

Historical data illustrates this volatility. Profitability per lot ranged from PLN 140 (2019) to PLN 275 (2024) over the 2019-2025 period, with no clear linear trend. The metric reached PLN 249 in 2020 during the COVID-19 volatility, fell to PLN 144 in 2021, recovered to PLN 212 in 2022, and reached its highest recorded level at PLN 275 in 2024 before declining to PLN 215 in 2025. The 2025 figure was depressed by a low-volatility third quarter, during which profitability per lot fell to PLN 152.

For context, a PLN 60 change in profitability per lot, applied to 2025's volume of 8.87 million lots, translates to approximately PLN 532 million in revenue, roughly equivalent to XTB's entire marketing budget. This metric's sensitivity to market conditions explains the wide variance in XTB's quarterly earnings and represents a factor that FM Intelligence estimates is frequently underweighted in consensus forecasts.

FM Intelligence 2026 Projection: PLN 2.1-2.9 Billion Revenue Under Three Scenarios

FM Intelligence projects XTB's 2026 consolidated operating income in a range of PLN 2.1 billion to PLN 2.9 billion, with a base case of approximately PLN 2.4 billion. The projection is based on compound annual growth rate extrapolation of client acquisition trends from 2022-2025, adjusted for the company's stated quarterly acquisition target of 150,000-210,000 new clients and the observed relationship between active client growth and revenue.

Base case assumptions (PLN 2.4 billion revenue, PLN 580-650 million net profit): New client acquisition of 950,000-1,100,000 in 2026, reflecting continued marketing investment at a similar scale to 2025. Active clients reaching 1.5-1.7 million, assuming the historical active-to-total ratio of approximately 55% holds. CFD volume of 10-11 million lots, reflecting the larger active client base. Profitability per lot of PLN 220-240, assuming a mixed-volatility environment without sustained low-volatility quarters. Operating expenses of PLN 1.4-1.6 billion, reflecting continued elevated marketing spend but with some efficiency gains from scale.

Bull case (PLN 2.9 billion revenue, PLN 800-900 million net profit): Assumes profitability per lot of PLN 260-280, consistent with a year of elevated market volatility. Client acquisition at the upper end of the range. Operating expense growth decelerating to 15-20% as the marketing push moderates.

Bear case (PLN 2.1 billion revenue, PLN 350-450 million net profit): Assumes profitability per lot of PLN 180-200, reflecting a year similar to 2025 where one or more quarters produce low volatility. Operating expenses continuing to grow at 20-25% as XTB maintains its expansion investment.

The key variable is profitability per lot, not client acquisition. FM Intelligence estimates that a PLN 40 change in profitability per lot, at projected 2026 volumes, swings revenue by approximately PLN 400-440 million, a range wider than the difference between XTB's 2024 and 2025 net profit figures.

Three Structural Factors That Consensus Coverage Underweights

First, the interest rate sensitivity of XTB's revenue structure. Swap-related income and net interest on client cash together contributed an estimated 28-30% of XTB's 2024 operating income, based on FM Intelligence calculations using the company's revenue composition disclosures and the net interest income line. A 200 basis-point reduction in benchmark rates across XTB's operating currencies would reduce this income stream, though the magnitude depends on client cash balances and position sizes at the time.

Second, the operating leverage asymmetry. XTB's operating expenses rose 48.2% in 2025 while revenue grew 14.6%. Between 2019 and 2022, the relationship was inverted: revenue grew 503% while expenses grew 221%. The current phase reflects a deliberate investment in client acquisition, but the company has not yet demonstrated that operating leverage will return at the new, higher cost base. If marketing spend does not moderate while revenue per client continues to decline, margin compression could persist.

Third, the client monetization gap. XTB's average revenue per active client fell from PLN 5,400 in 2022 to PLN 1,800 in 2025. During this same period, the client acquisition cost held at PLN 700-1,100. FM Intelligence calculates the revenue-to-CAC ratio at 2.6x in 2025, down from 4.9x in 2022 and 9.3x in 2020. Sustaining the current strategy requires either stabilizing revenue per client through new product lines (stocks, ETFs, interest on deposits, crypto) or maintaining client acquisition costs at current levels while demonstrating that new clients generate positive lifetime value at PLN 1,800 in annual revenue.