From PLN 239 Million to PLN 2.15 Billion: Revenue at a 44% CAGR Over Six Years
XTB's consolidated operating income expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 44.2% between 2019 and 2025, according to FM Intelligence calculations based on XTB's audited financial statements. Revenue rose from PLN 239.3 million in 2019 to PLN 2,146.1 million in 2025, a nine-fold increase. The trajectory, however, was not linear. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 drove operating income to PLN 797.8 million, a 233% year-on-year increase, as heightened market volatility and lockdown-driven retail trading activity expanded both the client base and transaction volumes. Revenue then contracted 22% in 2021 to PLN 625.6 million before rebounding to PLN 1,444.2 million in 2022, driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and commodity price dislocations.
Since 2022, the growth trajectory stabilized. Operating income increased 12.1% in 2023 (restated to PLN 1,618.4 million), 15.8% in 2024 (PLN 1,873.4 million), and 14.6% in 2025 (PLN 2,146.1 million). The three-year revenue CAGR from 2022 to 2025 was 14.1%, a pace that reflected steady client base expansion rather than the volatility-driven spikes of earlier years.
A methodological note is relevant here. Beginning with the 2024 annual report, XTB reclassified net interest income on client cash as a component of operating income. This restated 2023 total operating income from PLN 1,588.3 million (as originally reported) to PLN 1,618.4 million. The PLN 30.1 million difference represents net interest earned on client deposits. By 2025, this line item had grown to PLN 78.0 million, comprising 3.6% of total operating income. All figures in this analysis use the restated methodology for consistency across periods.
The 76% Decline: Revenue per Active Client Fell from PLN 7,400 to PLN 1,800
While headline revenue grew nine-fold, the revenue generated per active client moved in the opposite direction. Average operating income per active client decreased from PLN 7,400 in 2020 to PLN 1,800 in 2025, according to XTB's own KPI disclosures in the 2025 annual report. The decline was consistent across the period: PLN 3,200 in 2021, PLN 5,400 in 2022, PLN 3,900 in 2023, PLN 2,700 in 2024, and PLN 1,800 in 2025.
Two factors drove this compression. First, the number of active clients grew faster than revenue: active clients expanded 24x from 49,600 in 2019 to 1,189,400 in 2025, while revenue grew 9x over the same period. Second, the composition of XTB's client base shifted. The company reported that nearly 80% of new EU clients in 2024 began investing by purchasing stocks, ETFs, or opening an investment plan rather than trading CFDs. These clients generate lower per-capita revenue than active CFD traders.
This metric is rarely emphasized in sell-side research coverage of XTB and represents the central tension in the company's transformation. If revenue per active client stabilizes at PLN 1,800-2,500, XTB requires approximately 850,000-1,200,000 active clients to generate PLN 2.1 billion in annual revenue. The company crossed the 1.19 million active-client threshold in 2025.
PLN 585 Million on Marketing: Operating Expenses Rose 48% While Revenue Grew 15%
Total operating expenses increased 48.2% year-on-year to PLN 1,313.7 million in 2025, compared to a 14.6% increase in operating income. The cost-to-income ratio rose to 61.2% from 47.3% a year earlier, marking the highest expense ratio since 2019 (72.6%). This ratio had ranged between 38.3% and 47.3% during the 2022-2024 period.
Marketing was the largest cost category at PLN 584.9 million, up 69.7% from PLN 344.8 million in 2024. Marketing expenditure as a percentage of operating income rose to 27.2% in 2025 from 18.4% in 2024 and 16.3% in 2023. XTB described this as its largest-ever global branding campaign, spanning three continents.
Salaries and employee benefits, the second-largest cost category, increased 32.6% to PLN 413.0 million, reflecting headcount growth across the group. Other external services (including IT systems and database licenses) rose 67.7% to PLN 132.8 million. Commission expenses, primarily fees paid to payment service providers for client deposits, increased 10.4% to PLN 107.4 million.
|
Cost Category |
2023 (PLN mm) |
2024 (PLN mm) |
2025 (PLN mm) |
2025 vs 2024 |
|
Marketing |
263.9 |
344.8 |
584.9 |
+69.7% |
|
Salaries & benefits |
259.1 |
311.6 |
413.0 |
+32.6% |
|
Commission expenses |
61.8 |
97.3 |
107.4 |
+10.4% |
|
Other external services |
64.1 |
79.2 |
132.8 |
+67.7% |
|
Other (D&A, taxes, rent, etc.) |
45.2 |
54.0 |
75.5 |
+39.8% |
|
Total operating expenses |
694.2 |
886.7 |
1,313.7 |
+48.2% |
Source: XTB S.A. consolidated annual reports, 2023-2025.
Despite the increase in absolute marketing spend, XTB's average client acquisition cost remained flat at PLN 700 per new client in both 2024 and 2025, according to the company's KPI disclosures. This figure decreased from PLN 1,100 in 2022 and PLN 800 in 2023, indicating improved marketing efficiency per client acquired even as total spend rose. The question is whether per-client revenue of PLN 1,800 can sustain a PLN 700 acquisition cost over a client's lifetime.
Commodity CFDs at PLN 924 Million, Index CFDs at PLN 761 Million: Revenue Mix by Instrument Class
CFD-based instruments continued to dominate XTB's revenue, generating PLN 2,035.0 million in gross revenue in 2025 (before bonuses and broker commissions), up 10.7% from PLN 1,837.2 million in 2024. Commodity CFDs were the largest contributor at PLN 923.7 million (45.4% of gross CFD revenue), followed by index CFDs at PLN 760.7 million (37.4%). Currency CFDs generated PLN 290.4 million (14.3%), and stock/ETF CFDs contributed PLN 60.0 million (2.9%).
The dominance of commodity CFDs reflected activity in gold, natural gas, and cocoa, according to XTB's disclosures. Index CFDs, driven primarily by instruments tracking the US 100, German DAX, and US 500, increased their share from 33.9% in 2024 to 37.4% in 2025.
The CFD mix shifted considerably from 2019, when index CFDs accounted for 75.2% of total CFD revenue and commodities contributed just 5.2%. By 2020, the commodity share had risen to 33.2% as oil price volatility attracted traders. By 2025, the split between commodities and indices had reached near-parity, with commodities holding a narrowing lead. Currency CFDs, once 18.3% of the mix in 2019, contracted to 14.3% by 2025.
The Swap Income Shift: From 15% to 42% of Gross Revenue Between 2019 and 2024
An under-examined dimension of XTB's revenue structure is the composition by income source: spread, swap points/fees, and market-making. Swap, fees, and commission income rose from 15% of gross revenue in 2019 to 41-42% in 2023-2024, according to XTB's disclosures across the relevant annual reports. In 2025, the company separated these categories further, reporting swap at 25%, market-making at 25%, spread at 48%, and fees/commissions at 2%.
The increase in swap-related income coincided with the global interest rate tightening cycle. Swap points on CFD positions reflect interest rate differentials, and as central banks raised rates from 2022 onward, the income XTB earned from holding client positions overnight expanded. This created a structural revenue tailwind that was not driven by client acquisition or trading volume but by macroeconomic conditions.
This dynamic carries implications for XTB's revenue sustainability. If central banks reduce interest rates, swap income as a percentage of revenue would decrease. The 2025 data already suggests a partial normalization: swap's share fell from 42% (2024) to 25% (2025), while market-making rebounded from 5% to 25%. The 2021 data provides a cautionary precedent: market-making generated a negative 23% contribution that year, meaning XTB's market-making operations produced a net loss, likely connected to the meme-stock volatility and abrupt directional moves that disadvantaged market-makers.
|
Year |
Spread |
Swap/Fees/Commissions |
Market Making |
|
2019 |
62% |
15% |
23% |
|
2020 |
54% |
16% |
30% |
|
2021 |
83% |
40% |
-23% |
|
2022 |
54% |
26% |
20% |
|
2023 |
46% |
41% |
13% |
|
2024 |
53% |
42% |
5% |
|
2025 |
48% |
27%* |
25% |
Source: XTB S.A. consolidated annual reports, 2019-2025. *2025 split: swap 25% + fees/commissions 2%.
Separately, XTB began reporting net interest income on client cash as a distinct operating income line from 2024. This item grew from PLN 58.9 million in 2024 to PLN 78.0 million in 2025, reflecting a 56.3% increase in client cash balances partially offset by lower prevailing interest rates. This represents an additional revenue stream, distinct from swap income on CFD positions, that benefits from higher interest rates and a growing deposit base.
Poland at 54.4% of Revenue: Geographic Concentration Increased for the Fourth Consecutive Year
Central and Eastern Europe generated PLN 1,447.9 million in operating income in 2025, representing 67.5% of consolidated revenue. Poland alone contributed PLN 1,168.4 million, or 54.4% of total operating income, up from 51.1% in 2024, 46.7% in 2023, and 37.0% in 2020. XTB stated that it captured approximately 33% of all new securities accounts registered with Poland's Central Securities Depository (KDPW) in 2025.
Western Europe, the second-largest region, generated PLN 387.4 million (18.0% of total), up 8.9% year-on-year but declining as a share from 19.0% in 2024. The Middle East contributed PLN 182.5 million (8.5%), down 10.1% from PLN 203.1 million in 2024. Latin America generated PLN 128.3 million (6.0%), up 8.8% from PLN 117.9 million.
The increasing concentration in Poland represents both a domestic success and a diversification risk. Poland's share of XTB's revenue increased by 17.4 percentage points between 2020 and 2025. Any regulatory changes affecting the Polish retail brokerage market, alterations to IKE (pension account) tax incentives, or saturation in client acquisition would disproportionately affect the group's consolidated results. XTB's disclosures indicate plans to expand in Western Europe (through ISA accounts in the UK and PEA accounts in France) and in Asia (Indonesia), which may eventually reduce this concentration.
Institutional Revenue Fell 61% to PLN 42.5 Million: The X Open Hub Segment Fades
XTB's institutional operations (branded as X Open Hub), which provide liquidity and trade infrastructure to third-party brokers, generated operating income of PLN 42.5 million in 2025. This represents a 48.3% decline from PLN 82.3 million in 2024 and a 60.8% decline from PLN 108.4 million in 2023. The institutional segment's share of total operating income fell to 2.0% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024 and 6.7% in 2023.
By comparison, the institutional segment generated PLN 104.9 million in 2020, when it accounted for 13.2% of total operating income. XTB's business is now 98% retail, a concentration that contrasts with peers such as CMC Markets and IG Group, which maintain larger institutional divisions.
PLN 78 Million from Stocks and ETFs: Revenue 16x Higher Than 2020
Gross revenue from stocks and ETP (exchange-traded product) transactions reached PLN 78.3 million in 2025, up 155.5% from PLN 30.7 million in 2024. This represented a 16-fold increase from PLN 5.0 million in 2020. Stock and ETP trading volume in nominal value reached USD 21.8 billion in 2025, up 127.8% from USD 9.6 billion in 2024, according to XTB's operational KPI disclosures.
Despite the rapid growth, stocks and ETFs still accounted for only 3.7% of gross revenue from financial instrument operations in 2025. CFDs remained the dominant revenue source at 96.3%. XTB's stated strategic goal is to reduce CFD dependence by building a diversified investment platform offering stocks, ETFs, investment plans, pension accounts (IKE in Poland, ISA in the UK, PEA in France), and eventually spot cryptocurrency trading.
8.87 Million Lots at PLN 215 per Lot: Volume Rose 41% While Unit Profitability Fell 22%
CFD trading volume reached 8,866,400 lots in 2025, up 41.3% from 6,274,200 lots in 2024, according to the 2025 annual report. Profitability per lot, however, declined 21.8% to PLN 215 from PLN 275 in 2024. This metric, which represents the Group's operating income from financial instruments divided by trading volume in lots, is the single most volatile input in XTB's earnings model.
Historical data illustrates this volatility. Profitability per lot ranged from PLN 140 (2019) to PLN 275 (2024) over the 2019-2025 period, with no clear linear trend. The metric reached PLN 249 in 2020 during the COVID-19 volatility, fell to PLN 144 in 2021, recovered to PLN 212 in 2022, and reached its highest recorded level at PLN 275 in 2024 before declining to PLN 215 in 2025. The 2025 figure was depressed by a low-volatility third quarter, during which profitability per lot fell to PLN 152.
For context, a PLN 60 change in profitability per lot, applied to 2025's volume of 8.87 million lots, translates to approximately PLN 532 million in revenue, roughly equivalent to XTB's entire marketing budget. This metric's sensitivity to market conditions explains the wide variance in XTB's quarterly earnings and represents a factor that FM Intelligence estimates is frequently underweighted in consensus forecasts.
FM Intelligence 2026 Projection: PLN 1.9-3.0 Billion Revenue Under Three Scenarios
FM Intelligence projects XTB's 2026 consolidated operating income in a range of PLN 1.9 billion to PLN 3.0 billion, with a base case of approximately PLN 2.4 billion. The projection uses a revenue decomposition model: Revenue = (CFD volume in lots x profitability per lot) + non-CFD income. This formula was verified against XTB's 2024 and 2025 reported results with zero material error. CFD volume is projected using a direct CAGR extrapolation of the 2022-2025 lot series (3-year CAGR: 10.4%), discounted conservatively for the base case. Profitability per lot is modeled using mean reversion, with the 2019-2025 arithmetic mean of PLN 209 and standard deviation of PLN 47 defining the scenario bands.
Base case (PLN 2,435 million revenue, PLN 686 million net profit): CFD volume at 9.49 million lots (+7% year-on-year, below the 10.4% CAGR). Profitability per lot at PLN 225 (near the historical mean of PLN 209, tilted slightly above to reflect higher client cash balances generating swap income). Non-CFD income at PLN 300 million (+25% year-on-year, driven by continued growth in stocks/ETF revenue and interest on client deposits). Operating expenses at PLN 1,576 million (+20%, reflecting deceleration from 2025's 48.2% growth as marketing efficiency improves). Effective tax rate at 17.7% (3-year average). Net profit margin: 28.2%.
Bull case (PLN 2,981 million revenue, PLN 1,218 million net profit): Assumes profitability per lot at PLN 260 (approximately mean + 1 standard deviation), consistent with a year of elevated market volatility similar to 2022 or 2024. CFD volume at 10.2 million lots (+15%). Non-CFD income at PLN 330 million. Operating expense growth decelerating to 15% as the marketing push moderates. Net profit margin: 40.9%.
Bear case (PLN 1,943 million revenue, PLN 186 million net profit): Assumes profitability per lot at PLN 185 (approximately mean - 0.5 standard deviation), reflecting a year where two or more quarters produce the low-volatility conditions that compressed XTB's Q3 2025 profitability per lot to PLN 152. CFD volume at 9.04 million lots (+2%). Operating expenses rising 28% as XTB maintains its expansion investment despite lower revenue. Net profit margin: 9.6%. This scenario illustrates the operating leverage risk inherent in XTB's current high-fixed-cost structure.
|
Scenario |
CFD Lots (mm) |
Prof/Lot (PLN) |
Revenue (PLN mm) |
OpEx (PLN mm) |
Net Profit (PLN mm) |
Net Margin |
|
Bear |
9.04 |
185 |
1,943 |
1,682 |
186 |
9.6% |
|
Base |
9.49 |
225 |
2,435 |
1,576 |
686 |
28.2% |
|
Bull |
10.20 |
260 |
2,981 |
1,511 |
1,218 |
40.9% |
Source: FM Intelligence estimates. Revenue decomposition: Revenue = (CFD lots x Prof/Lot) + Non-CFD income. Full methodology and formulas available in the accompanying projection model workbook.
The key variable is profitability per lot, not client acquisition or volume growth. FM Intelligence's sensitivity analysis shows that a PLN 40 change in profitability per lot, applied to the base case volume of 9.49 million lots, swings revenue by approximately PLN 380 million. For context, this is roughly equivalent to XTB's entire 2025 marketing budget (PLN 585 million) and exceeds the difference between XTB's 2024 net profit (PLN 857 million) and 2025 net profit (PLN 644 million). The sensitivity matrix in the accompanying workbook shows revenue outcomes across 30 combinations of volume growth (0-20%) and profitability per lot (PLN 175-275).
Three Structural Factors That Consensus Coverage Underweights
First, the interest rate sensitivity of XTB's revenue structure. Swap-related income and net interest on client cash together contributed an estimated 28-30% of XTB's 2024 operating income, based on FM Intelligence calculations using the company's revenue composition disclosures and the net interest income line. In 2025, the swap share fell from 42% to 25% of gross CFD revenue as market-making income recovered, but net interest on client cash continued to grow (PLN 59 million to PLN 78 million). A 200 basis-point reduction in benchmark rates across XTB's operating currencies would reduce these income streams, though the magnitude depends on client cash balances and position sizes at the time. The base case projection incorporates PLN 300 million in non-CFD income, of which an estimated PLN 85-95 million is directly interest-rate sensitive.
Second, the operating leverage asymmetry. XTB's operating expenses rose 48.2% in 2025 while revenue grew 14.6%. Between 2019 and 2022, the relationship was inverted: revenue grew 503% while expenses grew 221%. The current phase reflects a deliberate investment in client acquisition, but the company has not yet demonstrated that operating leverage will return at the new, higher cost base. The bear case scenario in FM Intelligence's projection model illustrates this risk: if profitability per lot reverts to PLN 185 (approximately half a standard deviation below the 2019-2025 mean) while operating expenses continue to grow at 28%, net profit margin compresses to 9.6%, down from 30.0% in 2025 and 45.7% in 2024.
Third, the client monetization gap. XTB's average revenue per active client fell from PLN 5,400 in 2022 to PLN 1,800 in 2025. During this same period, the client acquisition cost held at PLN 700-1,100. FM Intelligence calculates the revenue-to-CAC ratio at 2.6x in 2025, down from 4.9x in 2022 and 9.3x in 2020. The declining ratio reflects a structural shift in client composition: nearly 80% of new EU clients in 2024 entered through stocks, ETFs, or investment plans rather than CFD trading. These clients generate lower per-capita revenue but may have longer retention periods and higher deposit balances. Sustaining the current strategy requires demonstrating that the lifetime value of a PLN 1,800-per-year client, acquired for PLN 700, exceeds the breakeven threshold when fully loaded operating costs are allocated.
Methodology Note: FM Intelligence forward-looking estimates for 2026 use a revenue decomposition model: Revenue = (CFD volume in lots x profitability per lot) + non-CFD income. This formula was verified against XTB's 2024 and 2025 reported operating income with zero material error. CFD volume is projected using CAGR extrapolation of the 2022-2025 lot series. Profitability per lot is modeled using mean reversion (arithmetic mean PLN 209, standard deviation PLN 47, 2019-2025). Three scenarios apply different assumptions for key inputs: CFD volume growth (2-15%), profitability per lot (PLN 185-260), non-CFD income growth (12.5-37.5%), and operating expense growth (15-28%). The effective tax rate (17.7%) is the 3-year arithmetic mean of reported rates. All historical financial data are sourced from XTB S.A.'s audited consolidated annual reports for 2019 through 2025. Where restatements occurred (notably the 2023 operating income reclassification of net interest income on client cash, first applied in the 2024 annual report), the restated figures are used consistently across all periods. The full projection model with live formulas and a 30-cell sensitivity matrix is available in the accompanying Excel workbook. All projections are FM Intelligence estimates and should not be treated as forecasts. They will be revised as new data becomes available.